Industry studies for electric mobility
1st quarter 2017
Demand for oil, goal and gas may be displaced by 2025 due to lower costs for solar power and EV batteries. The report also suggests price parity between electric and conventional cars within the decade.
The CARB has published the “Midterm Review” of its EV programme. It is expected that just because of the programme, at least 1m new electric vehicles will hit the road in California by 2025.
This report provides an overview of electric buses in Europe. In line with strategies from 19 transport agencies, some 2,500 electric and plug-in hybrid buses will roam the streets of 25 European cities by 2020. Another 13 transport agencies in another 18 cities are planning for a total of 6,100 of said buses by 2025.
4th quarter 2016
Price parity for electric and petrol cars over a four-year running period may be reached by 2024. The organisation also sees it likely for EVs to become even cheaper to run than gas guzzlers.
A CO2 cap of 70g/km is technically possibly and financially doable for the automotive industry. They could even reach that without having any EVs in their line-up, though if they did, investments would drop by 500 euros per vehicle.
The ‘Low Emission Bus Guide’ provides insights for bus operators and local authorities in order to help them make electric purchasing decisions.
3rd quarter 2016
If passenger road transport would become 80 percent more electric and fuelled by renewables, European CO2 emissions could decrease by 84% by 2050 compared to 2010. The calculations stem from a study commissioned by the EEA.
Leading edge of electric vehicle market development in the United States: An analysis of California cities
The ICCT looked at acceptance of electric vehicles in California’s cities and has identified some determining factors.
In this report, the Union of Concerned Scientists looks at what efforts manufacturers make to sell more plug-in electric cars in the U.S. BMW, Nissan and Tesla get a gold star for being available across the county, while others have some catching up to do outside of California.
This survey of Norwegian vehicle owners identified who the owners of BEVs and PHEVs are, how the vehicles are used, why they are bought and how the technology is rated, compared to owners of Internal Combustion Engine Vehicles.
The ICCT has reviewed and summarized different publications about the cost structure of EVs, plug-in hybrids and fuel cell cars. The report also compares the efficiency of the different systems.
Li-Ion and SLA E-Bikes: Drivetrain, Motor, and Battery Technology Trends, Competitive Landscape, and Global Market Forecast
This report examines the global market for throttle-control and pedal-assist electric bicycles (e-bikes), with detailed analysis of market opportunities, drivers, and technology trends, as well as forecasts for sales and revenue, segmented by region and battery chemistry, through 2025.
The University of Colorado, Boulder, has made an amazing find. They gave a group of commuters, who usually take the car, pedelecs, which they had to use three times per week for one month. The result: people were much fitter than at the beginning of the study.
Segmenting the $10 Billion Battery Market for Plug-in Vehicles: Market Share Projections for OEMs, Individual Models, and Suppliers
This study expects the battery market for plug-in vehicles to reach 10bn dollars in 2020 and anticipates that 90% of that demand will be driven by only six companies: Tesla, BYD, Volkswagen, General Motors, Renault-Nissan, and BMW.
16 percent of all new cars would need to be electric by 2020 for fleets to comply with emission regulations in Europe, the U.S. and China, according to the UN’s World Energy Council. The WEC refers to the EV Gap as all three major markets are yet behind their self-imposed targets.
The report gives an overview of the worldwide market development for electric cars, hybrids and plug-in hybrids and looks at the market introduction of electric mobility in the 18 member countries of the IEA Technology Collaboration Programme Hybrid and Electric Vehicles (HEV TCP).
2nd quarter 2016
This study investigates consumer incentives for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) and battery electric vehicles (BEVs) in the five largest markets in Europe: Germany, the United Kingdom, France, the Netherlands, and Norway. The paper looks at incentives at the national level, and uses 10 case studies of European cities/regions to examine how local governments can complement national incentives. The focus is on fiscal incentives, charging infrastructure density, and EV market shares as key indicators of countries’ readiness to transition to electric mobility. The study analyzes the diffusion of EVs at the regional level, including maps of EV market shares and charging infrastructure for each market.
The analysis has found that by 2045, some configurations of battery electric vehicles (BEV) could become almost as energy dense as a conventional vehicle. The study aims to offer a thorough and objective evaluation of the two vehicle types.
The Canadian Plug-In Electric Vehicle Study found that one reason why Canadians shy away from electric cars ist that they are unsure about what a PEV is. Another factor is cost. Differing incentive programmes in different provinces further impede national PEV uptake.
Production of Global Hydrogen Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles (FCEVs) is expected to reach more than 70,000 vehicles annually by 2027, as more automotive OEMs bring FCEVs to market. The report takes a holistic view on FCEV production, components and hydrogen and infrastructure markets.
The report presents the findings of a study on the public’s sentiments regarding plug-in vehicles (PEVs) in the U.S., with a focus on vehicle purchasing behaviors, awareness, and barriers to acceptance.
Navigant Research predicts an annual capacity of 11 GWh for plug-in vehicle Li-ion batteries available for second-life stationary ESS applications by 2035. The analysts note that it is a win-win situation for both car and ESS manufacturers.
1st quarter 2016
The guide provides information on general issues related to Ultra Low Emission Vehicles (ULEVs). This includes practical information on types and benefits of ULEVs available, charging, as well as safety and running costs.
Researchers from TU Chemnitz and the University of Southampton studied eco-driving behaviour in hybrid vehicles. They found that green technologies alone are insufficient and have to be backed up by systems that facilitate and not only encourage eco-conscious driving. Building on the results, the team presented a number of suggestions for the design of systems that facilitate ecodriving.
In this report, Technavio covers the market outlook and growth prospects of global fuel cell market in the automotive Industry for 2015-2019. The market is set to grow at a rapid CAGR of over 45% (in terms of unit shipments) through 2019.
Following their first report on the supply side of the e-bike market in Germany, mod21 and Greenfinder have now turned their attention to the whole of Europe, flagging up market developments, and revealing changes in market structure and model characteristics in distinct user categories such as city, trekking and mountain bikes.
4th quarter 2015
In its latest Leaderboard report, Navigant Research sets LG Chem apart as leading provider of Li-ion batteries for electric and hybrid vehicles. The Koreans are closely pursued by Panasonic and Samsung SDI. All three excel in both strategy and execution.
This white paper projects that the global market for plug-in vehicles (plug-in hybrid and battery-electric vehicles) will reach record sales in excess of 700,000 units in 2016 thanks to strong growth in China, Europe and the US. This will be followed by strong annual growth, according to the report.
This report analyzes the North American market for light duty plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs), including detailed geographic forecasts of PEV sales by U.S. state, metropolitan statistical area (MSA), Canadian province, Canadian city, and selected U.S. utility service area.
This report includes the findings of five large-scale PEV and charging infrastructure projects in the United States. It finds that public charging infrastructure is not needed everywhere to enable PEV adoption. Instead, the results suggest that charging infrastructure should be focused at homes, workplaces and public “hot spots” that serve multiple venues.
3rd quarter 2015
Lithium Ion Batteries for Battery, Plug-In Hybrid, and Hybrid Electric Vehicles and Stop-Start Vehicles: Global Market Analysis and Forecasts
Navigant Research forecasts that the global market for Li-ion batteries in light duty and medium/heavy duty vehicles will almost quadruple from 7.8bn dollars in 2015 to 30.6bn dollars in 2024.
The report draws on the research from almost 50 UK and international sources, and points to a significant change in the way motorists use and own plug-in vehicles. Evidence from the report shows that 82% of ULEV-owning households in the UK use their electric car as their main vehicle, while for 20% of owners an electric vehicle is the only car.
Hydrogen holds promise for some of the key challenges facing emissions reduction in sectors such as transport, industry and buildings, as well as the electricity system. The report details the steps governments, industry and researchers need to take to foster and track deployment of hydrogen technology, if it is to be a significant energy carrier by 2050.
The analysts forecast the global Li-ion battery market for EVs to grow at a CAGR of 22.8% over the period 2014-2019.
Based on the current developments, this study offers a comprehensive insight into the structure, volumes and development trends of the market for buses, including a presentation of the development stage of alternative propulsions, their manufacturers and their occurrence worldwide.
The German Aerospace Center (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt; DLR) teamed up with the Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy (Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie GmbH; WI) in the STROMbegleitung (electricity evaluation) study to analyse technologies, outlook and life-cycle assessments for electrically-powered transport. The study comprehensively charts current progress in technology, identifies trends, and analyses life cycle assessments for a variety of vehicle concepts. At the same time, it places German activities in the field of electromobility within an international context. The research programme received a 1.7 million euro grant from the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung; BMBF) as part of the STROM support programme (key technologies for electromobility).
Li-ion Battery Capacity is projected to reach 87 GWh by 2020 from 8.3 GWh in 2014, whereas global revenues derived from Li-ion battery sales is anticipated to post a CAGR of 43.1% in reaching a projected $36.5 billion by 2020.
Summary based on the provisional data recently released by the European Environment Agency. All manufacturers have achieved their 2015 targets, with average emissions of 123.3 g/km in 2014, a decrease of 3% compared to 2013.
This ten year forecasts concerns power electronics for electric vehicles with the emphasis on the largest market, that for on-road vehicles, particularly cars and buses.
2nd quarter 2015
This guide aims to assist local and city authorities in understanding a broad range of policy measures and initiatives that can be used to encourage the uptake of LEVs.
This report takes a look at the future of fuel cell vehicles of all kinds over the next 15 years by interviewing experts and market players.
Navigant Research forecasts that North American plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) sales will exceed 1.1 million annually by 2024. The report includes detailed geographic forecasts of PEV sales by U.S. state, metropolitan statistical area (MSA), Canadian province, Canadian city, and selected U.S. utility service area.
The report delivers 11 key findings followed by recommendations Plug In America believes will stimulate PEV market growth.
This study is the first to evaluate the response to fiscal incentives that governments in major vehicle markets worldwide have deployed to promote plug-in electric vehicles. It offers a synthesis of wide-ranging sales data, national taxation policy information, and direct electric vehicle purchasing rebates to analyze the link between government policy and electric vehicle sales.
The report finds that sale volumes of onboard chargers stood at 304,683 units in 2014 and estimates this to reach 2,235,937 units by 2020. According to Frost & Sullivan, EV manufacturers are now moving towards onboard chargers with a power output greater than 6.6 kW to reduce charging time. While high-end PHEVs are contributing to this trend, lower-end models in this segment are still using 3.7 kW onboard chargers. Consequently, onboard chargers with power ratings between 3 to 3.7 kW are expected to remain dominant, accounting for 62 percent of sales even in 2020.
This report predicts sales of up to 805,000 electric buses and trucks from 2014 until 2023. The analysts base their prognosis on technological advances.
This report is looking at the reasons for slow EV uptake. Recommendations to spur sales include the standardization of charging equipment, access and payment as well increasing consumer awareness. The report also agrees with president Barack Obama who wants to transform the federal tax credit into a point-of-sale rebate.
UK EVSE’s procurement guide is aimed at businesses, real estate developers, car clubs, taxi firms, bus companies/operators, vehicle franchise dealers, local authorities and public authorities wishing to provide charge points for members of the public, visitors or employees who drive EVs.
New analysis from Frost & Sullivan finds that EV sale volumes stood at 304,683 units in 2014 and estimates this to reach 466,407 units in 2015. At the end of the year, North America will continue to lead with a market share of 36 percent, followed by Europe and China with a share of 27 and 24 percent respectively. The study covers PHEVs, BEVs, neighbourhood EVs and eREVs.
According to this study, the days of affordable electric vehicle batteries may arrive sooner than experts predicted. Research has EV battery costs already lower than they were expected to be in 2020. The researchers delved into battery costs for vehicle manufacturers between 2007 and 2014, charting the decline from $1,000 per kWh to around $300 per kWh in recent figures for the top companies — a number that was expected to be years away for automakers and battery producers. A benchmark of $230 per kWh was even considered feasible by as early as 2017.
This study shows that EV batteries can continue to meet daily travel needs of drivers well beyond the 80 percent floor for remaining energy storage capacity that is commonly assumed. The study also sheds light on a number of other factors concerning battery use and energy and power fade, including that even EV batteries with substantial energy capacity fade continue to provide sufficient buffer charge for unexpected trips with long distances; that enabling charging in more locations, even if only with 120 V wall outlets, prolongs the useful life of EV batteries; and that EVs meet performance requirements even down to 30 percent remaining power capacity.
1st quarter 2015
According to its scientists’ calculations, more than 740,000 electric cars were on the road worldwide in early 2015. Some 320,000 vehicles were registered last year, enabling car battery suppliers to generate considerable revenue of around 2 billion euros.
Worldwide sales of electric motorcycles and scooters are expected to grow from 5.3 million annually in 2015 to nearly 6 million by 2024.
Vehicle Grid Integration: VGI Applications for Demand Response, Frequency Regulation, Microgrids, Virtual Power Plants, and Renewable Energy Integration
Navigant Research forecasts that worldwide revenue from vehicle-grid integration (VGI) services will grow from 335,000 USD annually in 2015 to 20.7m USD by 2024.
This report predicts that some eight million vehicles with range extenders will be built in 2025. It also compares different technologies, taking into account lower energy needs, i.e. due to the extension of fast charging networks.
Navigant Research believes the market for EV charging equipment will grow from today’s 152.6 million to 2.9 billion dollars by 2023. The report analyzes the global market for PEV charging equipment sales and charging services. The study covers the residential and commercial charging market segments and analyzes the potential uptake of alternating current (AC), direct current (DC), and wireless electric vehicle (EV) charging equipment. Global market forecasts for residential and commercial EVSE unit sales and revenue, broken out by region, charger type, and segment (residential, workplace, public, and private), extend through 2023. Forecasts of revenue from charging services and electricity demand are included, as well. The report also examines the different regional drivers and business models related to PEV charging and the key industry players within the competitive landscape.
Effects of Regional Temperature on Electric Vehicle Efficiency, Range, and Emissions in the United States
Researchers have characterized the effect of regional temperature differences on EV efficiency, range, and use-phase CO2 emissions in the US, based on aggregated real-world fleet data for the Nissan Leaf. Among their findings is that the resulting regional differences in efficiency, range and emissions are large enough to affect adoption patterns and the energy and environmental implications of battery EVs relative to alternatives.
Vehicle Electrification Market by Product Type, Degree of Hybridization & Region – Trends & Forecast to 2019
This report looks at the global vehicle electrification market (including mild hybrids) and forecasts a compound annual growth rate of 19 percent, accumulating to 30,74 billion dollars by 2019. Japan and China are the main contributors to the growth of vehicle electrification market in Asia-Oceania region. To cater this huge demand of the Asia-Oceania region many OEMs are expanding in to this region.
The market for electric and hybrid buses could reach a volume of more than 72 billion dollars by 2025. The report analyses about 100 manufacturers while taking into account regional trends.
Navigant Research predicts that by 2023, e-bikes sales will surpass 360 million units per year. The technological trends include combined throttle-control and pedal-assist models, electric cargo bicycles, retrofit kits and wheels, 3D-printed bicycles, and the use of e-bikes in security applications.
Global Forecasts for Light Duty Hybrid, Plug-In Hybrid, and Battery Electric Vehicle Sales and Vehicles in Use: 2014-2023
Navigant Research predicts that the market for light duty electric vehicles will reach 6.4 million dollars in 2023, compared to 2.7 million in 2014. The report also suggests that advancements of fuel-efficient combustion engines could threaten the hybrid market share.
Concerning Automotive Thermoelectric Generators (ATEG), analysts enter 2015 with the view that thermoelectric energy harvesting will be on production hybrid electric on-road vehicles from 2018. It will be commonplace on hybrids in 2020 and almost entirely to charge the battery, or increasingly supercapacitors.
4th quarter 2014
This report is looking at technologies like in-wheel motors, long-life batteries and supercaps suitable to increase EV efficiency in the years to come.
This report is looking at electric and hybrid trucks and new players in the market including Wrightspeed, TEVA UK/JAV and EDI.
The market for range extenders is expected to grow over the next ten years to become worth 125 billion dollars in 2025. IDTechEx predicts that by 2025 more than 8 million vehicles will have a range extender.
The EU project “E-Mobility NSR,” which kicked off in October 2011, has come to an end and presents its results. Eleven international partners from the North Sea region contributed to a better awareness of electric mobility in the region and now report on their project achievements.
Navigant Research predicts that the market for e-bikes will grow only slightly from 31.7 million sold worldwide this year to 40.3 million in 2023. China’s marketshare could drop from now 91 percent to 85 percent in the next decade.
IDTechEx projects that the market for electric and hybrid vehicles for the construction, agriculture and mining sectors will be worth 30 billion dollars by 2025. According to the report, i.e. tractors in agriculture will be electric in volume quantities by 2025.
Global Forecasts for Light Duty Hybrid, Plug-In Hybrid and Battery Electric Vehicle Sales and Vehicles in Use: 2014-2023
According to Navigant Research, 2.4 percent of all new vehicles sold by 2023 could be plug-ins. Luxury brands are said to lead this trend, as they are increasingly focusing on EV development and could already make up 50 percent of all EV sales by 2018.
A techno-economic analysis and optimization of Li-ion batteries for light-duty passenger vehicle electrification
Mass production can only reduce the cost of batteries for electric vehicles to a certain point. The study notes that battery economies of scale are exhausted at around 200-300 MWh of annual production.
The market for electric traction motors could have generated more than 25 billion dollars between today and 2025. The analysts further believe EV uptake will reach its tipping point even before the end of this decade.
The market for electric vehicles, including boats and planes, could be worth 533 billion dollars by 2025, according to this report by IDTechEx. The updated October-version takes into account quads, too.
3rd quarter 2014
The study predicts a strong growth of South Korean EV infrastructure, due to government support. By 2020, some 90,000 charging stations could be installed in the country. That would equal a compound annual growth rate of 72.7 per cent.
According to the “E-mobility index Germany has the most high-tech offering of electric and hybrid vehicles. The United States remains the biggest market for electric vehicles, neck on neck with Japan in terms of production figures.
Dr. Anderman’s report analyzes Tesla’s success to date and forecasts the impact it will have on automakers, battery producers, and the future of the EV industry. He concludes that Tesla’s Gigafactory will not cause prices of Li-ion batteries to drop before 2018, because these also depend on external factors such as demand and competing technologies. A pack cost much below $200/kWh is unlikely before 2020, Anderman concludes.
The analysts forecast the Global Charging Equipment for Electric Vehicles market to grow at a CAGR of 33.13 percent between now and 2018. Analysts have identified lowering the cost as one of the main challenges.
Optimizing battery sizes of plug-in hybrid and extended range electric vehicles for different user types
This paper introduces a holistic approach for the optimization of the battery size of PHEVs and EREVs under German market conditions. The assessment focuses on the heterogeneity across drivers, by analyzing the impact of different driving profiles on the optimal battery setup from total cost of ownership perspective. It suggests that instead of taking the “one size fits all” approach, manufacturers should offer customers a range of different battery capacities to cater for specific needs.
In the first half of 2014, China’s electric vehicle sales volume exceeded 20,000, more than the last year’s total. Based on this, the sales volume throughout the year will be around 50,000, and the industry average growth rate will be maintained above 50% for years to come.
The report names the leading actors in battery management sector in China and notes that the country has some catching up to do. A gap some companies are trying to bridge with takeovers and joint ventures.
Navigant Research predicts 55 million electric motorcycles and scooters to be sold between this year and 2023 worldwide. The report provides an overview of current barriers, market drivers and key technologies. It also looks at how government programmes influence sales.
The study predicts a market volume of 10.5 billion dollars by 2025 for electric motorcycles and three-wheelers, including electric rickshaws and tuk-tuks.
Annual sales of EVs and plug-in hybrids will grow from nowadays 352,000 to up to 1.8 millions by 2023, Navigant estimates. The Asia-Pacific region will register the strongest growth and might overtake the U.S. already by 2018.
Electric Vehicle Batteries – Lithium Ion Batteries for Hybrid, Plug-In Hybrid, and Battery Electric Vehicles: Global Market Analysis and Forecasts
Navigant Research expects revenue from lithium ion batteries for consumer electric vehicles to grow from 5.7 billion dollars today to 24.1 billion dollars in 2023. Battery electric vehicles will make 15.1 billion of that total.
This report explains the materials and performance achievements and objectives of the 80 manufacturers of supercapacitors. It claims that functional materials for supercapacitors will be a $5 billion market before 2025.
This study covers 25 electric utilties across 14 states in the U.S. that have EV tariffs. These include 8 of the largest 15 utilities.
Consulting firm Roland Berger expect the market for “shared mobility” to grow annually by 35% until 2020. Biggest growth drivers will be car and bike sharing as well as taxi services.
IDTechEx predicts the market for electric vehicle traction motors to grow rapidly. Taking into account electric vehicles on land, water and in the air, the researchers expect a 25-billion sales volume by 2025.
Medium and Heavy Duty Hybrid Electric, Plug-In Hybrid Electric, Battery Electric, Natural Gas, Propane Autogas, Fuel Cell, and Conventional Vehicles: Global Market Forecasts, 2014-2035
Navigant Research predicts the number of medium- and heavy-duty vehicles to double until 2035. However, electric and hydrogen vehicles will only reach a one percent marketshare while alternative fuel vehicles gain another four percent within that time.
Frost & Sullivan predicts that the market for electric and hybrid vehicles in India will grow from 125,000 units per year in 2013 to 1.1 million in 2021. The main reasons are the growing investment in charging infrastructure there, as well as the 25 new (partially) electric models available by 2021.
2nd quarter 2014
The study found that the hybrid marketshare in the U.S. has not kept pace with the growing number of models available at dealers. While hybrid availability doubled from 2009 to 2013, sales have only increased from 2.4 to 3.0%.
This study shows that one of the strongest selling points for EVs in Norway is that they are allowed to drive in the bus lane. That saves time but means there are more EVs than buses in the designated lane. And that could lead to the end of the incentive.
IDTechEx predicts global sales of hybrid and pure electric cars to triple, reaching 178.9 billion dollars in 2024, as components become more integrated and range extenders even out the conventional car’s competitive edge.
This research examines early drivers of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) from a gendered perspective. Data are from two sets of focus groups conducted in 2011 and 2012 as PEVs entered the market in California. Within some themes, women are more likely to talk about their PEV in terms of its practicality as a travel tool and adapting to the present system of vehicle charging. Conversely, within these same themes men are more likely to talk in terms of research and development and how the system should change.
Who Is Buying Electric Cars in California? Exploring Household and Vehicle Fleet Characteristics of New Plug-In Vehicle Owners
This study explores the characteristics of 1,200 households who actually purchased a new plug-in vehicle in California during 2011-2012. It focuses on socio-demographic, vehicle fleet characteristics, regional and location factors, and purchasing motivations factors.
48-volt hybrid systems are likely to exceeded 7 million vehicles by 2024. Researchers predict that lithium-titanate (LTO) batteries will be the preferred energy storage technology, because of their ability to charge and discharge fast, which is critical for micro-hybrid applications.
Navigant Research estimates that plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEV), battery-electric vehicles (BEV), and fuel-cell electric vehicles (FCV) together will add up to almost 2.5% of the light-duty vehicles (LDVs) in use in 2035.
The market for electric water craft, including those on and under water, will increase rapidly from $2.6 billion to $6.3 billion in 2023 $7.3 billion in 2024. In addition there is a market for electric outboard motors that will more than triple in value as high power pure electric versions become increasingly viable. There is also a new market for water borne electric aircraft.
Power two-wheel vehicles (PTW), including e-motorcycles and e-scooters will continue to grow rather slowly, from 1.2 million vehicles in 2014 to 1.4 million in 2023 (e-motorcycles) and 4.1 million to 4.6 million (e-scooters).
This ICCT paper shows that incentives vary wildly from country to country, and that some are working better than others.
In this EU-funded study led by Scandinavian research institute SINTEF, researchers from seven different countries found that there is no danger from magnetic fields in electric cars. In fact, field intensity is well below the recommendations set by international standards.
The U.S. will keep its leading position as largest market for light-duty plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) with sales exceeding 514,000 in 2023.
Hybrid Electric, Plug-In Hybrid, and Battery Electric Light Duty, Medium Duty and Heavy Duty Trucks and Vans: Global Market Analysis and Forecasts
Navigant Research predicts global annual sales of hybrid and electric trucks to grow from below 10,000 in 2013 to more than 100,000 in 2020, if companies can find strategies to utilise these vehicles efficiently to equalise higher initial costs.
Global Forecasts for Light Duty Hybrid, Plug-In Hybrid, and Battery Electric Vehicle Sales and Vehicle Parc: 2013-2022
According to this recent report from Navigant Research, worldwide sales of electric and alternative fuel vehicles will grow from 6.6 million in 2014 to nearly 12.4 million in 2022.
Navigant Research’s latest report ‘Electric Vehicle Batteries’ predicts worldwide revenue from li-ion batteries for EVs to grow from less than six billion dollars today, to 26.1 billion dollars in 2023.
1st quarter 2014
The updated version of the “Well-to-Wheels Analysis of Future Automotive Fuels and Powertrains in the European Context” by Europe’s Joint Research Centre (JRC) and its partners now includes plug-in hybrid, battery and fuel-cell electric vehicles and a long-term outlook until 2020.
IDTechEx analysed the global activities of 140+ lithium battery manufacturers and predicts that by 2024, li-ion batteries for electric and hybrid vehicles will make up more than half of the total market volume.
The study based on a spatial and longitudinal travel dataset found that whether plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) have lower energy costs that conventional gasoline vehicles (CGVs) or hybrid-electric vehicles (HEVs) depends on charger coverage.
Navigant Research forecasts global annual sales of wireless charging equipment for light-duty EVs will surpass 300,000 units by 2022.
California’s Center for Sustainable Energy asked 8,756 plug-in car owners why they had bought their EV and found that the reasons vary depending on the model. Whereas Nissan Leaf buyers were more concerned about the environment, Chevy Volt owners were most attracted by the Volt’s promise of fuel savings and the possibility to use HOV lanes.
The study issues nanotechnology in photovoltaic and energy storage applications and predicts that it will soon become more widely used i.e. for electric transport.
Sustainable mobility with limited resources: Experience and behavior in dealing with electric vehicle range
The dissertation identifies different types of EV drivers with subjective levels of range anxiety and respective charging patterns. It finds that drivers artificially limit their drivable range and usually leave 20% to 25% as a safety buffer.
Dutch Delft University of Technology studied EV adoption in 30 countries and identified three interrelated factors for EV acceptance: financial incentives, the number of charging stations and local manufacturing facilities.
Navigant Research predicts that more than 250,000 vehicle-to-grid enabled electric vehicles will be sold from 2014 to 2022
The market for electric water crafts is expected to increase from 2.6 billion dollars of today to 7.3 billion in 2024. At the same time, sales of electric outboard motors will at least have tripled.
Navigant Research does not see any danger for U.S. grids through plug-in vehicles but lots of opportunities for utility companies. The power grid in the U.S. can sustain millions of electric vehicles without anyone having to invest in new power generation.
Estimating the potential of controlled plug-in hybrid electric vehicle charging to reduce operational and capacity expansion costs for electric power systems with high wind penetration
In this Carnegie Mellon University study researchers found out, that controlled EV charging in accordance with grid demands, could help cutting electricity costs by 50%. But EVs also might drive up prices if they are charged during times of peak demand.
OTREC wanted to find out, why people use electric bikes in the United States and surveyed 446 e-bike owners, using an instrument adapted from Monash University.
Erin Green, Steven Skerlos and James Winebrake argue that U.S. electric vehicle policies are inefficient and ineffective. They introduce “mainstream consumer bias” as an explanation for policy deficiencies and propose an alternative policy agenda to address some of these policy problems. Proposed policy options include strategic niche management, targeted R&D and incentives, and loans.
The impact on electricity demand and emissions due to the introduction of electric cars in the São Paulo Power System
The study is conducted for a road modal in São Paulo, the main state in Brazil in terms of economy, energy and environment, taking into account only automobiles. A comparative analysis of forecasting scenarios until 2035 for various inputs of electric cars in the whole state fleet is presented.
Professors Qiang Zhang and Fei Wei demonstrate a strategy of introducing an ion selective membrane to improve the stability and coulombic efficiency of lithium–sulfur batteries.
4th quarter 2013
The global turnover of lithium-ion battery sales for EVs will reach 3.8 billion dollars in 2015 and 9.2 billion dollars in 2020.
Between 2009 and 2011, fuel costs for the City of Loveland’s vehicle fleet increased by 29 percent. This large and rapid upward shift in costs prompted the city to initiate an aggressive alternative‐fuel vehicle purchasing strategy, focusing initially on battery electric vehicles (BEVs). The city has found that the BEVs will cost 41 percent less to own and operate than gasoline‐powered vehicles.
Learn how the oil city of Houston is embracing strategic adoption of plug-in vehicles in its municipal fleet to save money on fuel costs.
The total global gross value market for electric vehicles will reach US$334 Billion within the decade, from a current value of US$69 Billion.
Two-thirds of consumers surveyed stated that they believe BEVs have unique features that stand out from their gasoline counterparts, and 6 out of 10 agreed that BEVs are much less expensive to own in the long run than gasoline cars. Notably, more than two-thirds of the Navigant Research respondents indicated that they would shop for a vehicle costing no more than $25,000 with 43 percent indicating that they would hold their price to below $20,000.
Thomas Franke and Josef F. Krems propose that user–battery interaction style (UBIS) is associated with charging behaviour. UBIS and comfortable range can account for characteristics of charging behaviour. UBIS is related to users’ confidence in their mental model of range dynamics and also to utilization of range and of excess energy from renewable sources.
147.7 electric motors will be needed for EVs in 2023.
The number of electric cars in Canada has doubles in 2012-2013. The country hopes to see at least 600,000 EVs on its streets by the year 2020.
In 2070, public transport could run almost without any gas and oil. Electric and hybrid car will hold a 60 percent market share.
142 million electric vehicles will have been build in 2023.
Comprehensive analysis of the market potential of inductive charging of electric cars.
Compared with the equivalent combustion model, 13 out of 33 hybrid models will save the driver money.
The global market for electric water vehicles will grow from 2.6 billion dollars to 6.3 billion in 2023.
Based on the analysis of 2,500 charging operations in the U.S., this study found that less people charge their e-cars on hot summer days than had previously claimed.
In the U.S., the e-bike is beginning to replace the car. 93 percent of e-bike owners use it at least once a week, many even daily.
Fleets currently only use few electric vehicles. The reason, managers say, is the limited range, the long charging operations and limited number of charging stations.
The willingness to buy an electric car is high – especially in India and China.
Currently, there are about 64,000 public charging stations worldwide. The market for the corresponding components will grow about 28.8 percent annually until 2022.
Some 3 million plug-in and electric vehicles will be sold worldwide in 2020, due to rising gas and falling electricity prices.
3rd quarter 2013
Cities will have to turn to public transportation, bikes and even go on food. The motto: avoid, change, improve.
There will be two million EVs in 2023, compared to 70,000 today.
EVs are not more environmentally friendly than conventional vehicles, the study finds.
The Volt and the Leaf cost significantly less to drive over the course of five years than conventional cars.
More than half of the American questions believe that electric and hybrid vehicles will dominate the market in 20 years.
Vehicles refurbished with electric drives represent a viable alternative to conventional cars in Western Australia.
The report forecasts the market share development of hybrid vehicles in the individual U.S. states. Hawaii leads with an estimated 10 percent in 2022, followed by California with 6 percent.
Many fleet managers are still skeptic about electric mobility. The reason, they say, is the low acceptance of EVs among employees.
674 billion dollars were invested in the search for fossil fuels in 2012 worldwide. These should, however, not be used if countries want to reach their climate goals.
I n the coming ten years, the fast growing market for transaction batteries will reach 55 billion dollars.
Charging is possible by 70 km/h, but has to remain in its lane.
2nd quarter 2013
At least 5.3 million light duty transportation vehicles with electric drives will be on the road in the USA in 2035.
The charging infrastructure in north-east England is sufficient in order for EVs to be a viable alternative.
LG Chem is the leading manufacturer of lithium-ion batteries.
The report develops three scenarios as to how the German government can reach its alternative vehicle goal.
Application of Life-Cycle Assessment to Nanoscale Technology: Lithium-ion Batteries for Electric Vehicless
The production of lithium-ion batteries still shows room for improvement in terms of environmental and health issues.
The limited availability of charging stations as well as complicated methods of payment continue to be hurdle for the electric mobility market.
EV owners are generally wealthy, educated men between the ages of 30 and 50.
The increasing demand for high-end applications will further the market for electric mobility.
1st quarter 2013
For freight ports, fuel cells are a cost effective and petrol saving alternative to diesel generators.
The project collects data from charging stations, sorting them according to brand in order to see where people charge the most.
The capacity of Li-ion batteries for transportation will increase more than tenfold by 2020.
More than 7.5 million plug-in vehicles could be sold between 2013 and 2020.
EVs could reach a 6.3 percent global market share in 2020.
In 2040, up to 10 percent of all cars could be electric or hybrid.
A total of 130 million electric vehicles will be sold until 2025, most of the electric scooters for the Asian market.
In 2019, global sales of Li-ion batteries could reach 12.84 billion dollars.
In order to reach zero emission by 2025, Nordic countries will have to replace 90 percent of vehicles with electric or hybrid drives.
The market for charging infrastructure depends heavily on government subsidies.
The market for electric vehicles in Oregon, USA, continues to grow and is worth 266.5 million dollars.
Another 1.5 million electric vehicles will be on California’s streets in 2012.
The study compares the different energy mixes worldwide and deducts the EVs’ actual “zero emission.”
330,000 EVs with range extenders could be on the streets by 2018. Most range extenders will work with combustion motors.
The report describes the difficulties and technical requirements in order for plug-in hybrids to be successful.
According 36 percent of people questions, the price is still the biggest challenge for alternative drive vehicles.
Cost-effectiveness of plug-in hybrid electric vehicle battery capacity and charging infrastructure investment for reducing US gasoline consumption
Petrol consumption can be lowered with government subsidies for hybrid and plug-in hybrid vehicles.
The market for electric two-wheelers will continue to grow, especially in South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and Hong Kong.
The number of newly registered patents for alternative drives has grown by 182 percent since 2006.
The overall market for Li-ion batteries in light duty transportation will growto almost 22 billion dollars in 2020.
In 2022, there will be about 8 million hybrid vehicles with range extensions on the streets.
By 2017, the market for batteries for hybrid and electric cars will already be worth 14.6 billion U.S. dollars.
The market for electric buses and taxis will grow 8-fold in the coming ten years and will already include some 345.000 vehicles in 2017.
4th quarter 2012
The sales of pure electric cars will be 65 percent lower in 2035 than originally forecast.
The market for electric motorcycles and scooters in western Europe could grow by 28 percent – or to 150,000 – by 2018. The growth in Asia is expected to be even higher.
Comprehensive assessment of strategy and execution for 14 global electric vehicle supply equipment companies.
EVs could make up 30 percent of newly registered cars in 2030.
Hydrogen drives will not be successful in the near future because the costs are still to high.
Fuel cell buses the better option – compared to conventional drives- when looking at operation, capacity, flexibility and infrastructure.
The market volume of plastics for electric vehicles in Europe and North America will reach about 23,613 tonnes by 2017. That does not even include material for the car’s body.
The cost of an EV could be reduced by 635 euros when using aluminum instead of steel for the car’s body.
Compared to 2011, the interest in electric and plug-in hybrids in the USA has decreased by 5 percent.
The market for EVs to building technologies will reach 27 million dollars in 2020. Investments in the infrastructure will rise to 76 million dollars per year.
Wireless charging of EVs will grow 91 percent annually from 2011 to 2020.
Europe’s carmakers are closer to reach the 95g/km goal than their Asian competitors.
Optimal design and allocation of electrified vehicles and dedicated charging infrastructure for minimum life cycle greenhouse gas emissions and cost
The best way to reduce the costs of fleets is to use a combination of electric, hybrid and conventional vehicles.
Micro-hybrids to be dominant hybrid vehicle type for next 10 years.
Trends in urban mobility show that the amount of privately owned cars continues to decrease.
Car-sharing and car rentals could help promote the acceptance and knowledge about electric cars.
The report analysis the impact electric vehicles have on the environment compared to conventional cars.
The report analysis the market for electric vehicles for different segments and countries or continents, as well as by company.
The Chevrolet Volt is the most liked car among alternative vehicles.
Small electric motors will make up only 25 percent of the total motor market in 2025.
The price continues to be a deciding factor when shopping for EVs. It currently takes 6.5 years before the additional cost is amortized.
The market for electric forklifts could reach 500 million dollars in 2020 in the U.S. alone.
By 2022, the sales of electric vehicles will increase 3.6-fold, reaching about 129 million.
Some 12,000 buses could already be on the read in China by 2018.
Electric vehicles produce less carbon dioxide, but the production of batteries and engines still harms the environment.
100,000 new jobs have been created in Europe, due to the production of new vehicle technologies.
In 10 years, the market for supercapacitors will top 11 billion dollars.
The report focuses on components suppliers for electric vehicles.
Chevrolet is the leading EV maker, in front of Renault and Ford.
3rd quarter 2012
In 2020, 4.1 million charging stations will be online in Europe to meet the demand of the 2.9 millon EVs on European streets.
The U.S. consumer magazine says the Fisker Karma has “numerous shortcomings.”
The market for charging stations will be worth 1.2 billion dollars in 2020.
In 2020, yearly sales of plug-in vehicles in the USA will reach 400.000.
Hybrid drives for trucks help safe 13.7 percent of fuel compared to conventional drives.
Low Charging Costs Significantly Reduce Lifetime Cost of Ownership of Electric Vehicles for Fleet Operators
Fleets already save money using only electric vehicles.
The market for electric buses will grow 26.4 percent between 2012 and 2018.
Data about the usage of hydrogen fueling stations in Scandinavia.
32 percent of American car owners would be interested in buying a hybrid vehicle.
Between 2011 and 2020, the global market for electric vehicles will grow around 15 percent per year.
The market for lithium-ion batteries in China will reach 7.5 billion euros in 2016.
California will have to install 68 hydrogen fueling stations by 2015 to meet demands.
The market for fuel cells will reach 15.7 billion dollars in 2017.
Because of special electricity tariffs, charging an EV is 10 to 50 percent cheaper than filling up a conventional car.
Hybrid cars are more likely to succeed in the long-run, than purely electric vehicles.
During their lifetime, electric vehicles will cost around 5,000 euros more conventional cars.
152.000 plug-in vehicles will have been sold by 2017.
A total of 2.9 million plug-in vehicles will be on Europe’s streets in 2020; 4.1 million charging station will be online.
Overview of possible smart grid technologies in EVs.
2nd quarter 2012
In 2035, car battery prices will fall to 135 dollars per kWh.
Only about 410.00 EVs will be on the road in the U.S. some 2015.
Toyota is named “most low priced” company for the second time in a row.
Because of hybrid cars, electrified transmissions are becoming increasingly important for premium manufacturers.
The electric vehicle service equipment (EVSE) market will become mainstream by 2020.
80 percent of EVs will be fit with telematic systems by 2017.
Some 500,000 EVs could be sold in China until 2015; 5 million until 2020.
Strategic Technology and Market Analysis of Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure in North America
Some 4.1 million charging stations will be installed in the U.S. by 2017 – 87 percent wil be home charger.
Until 2015, the market for charging stations in China will grow around 107.6 percent yearly.
More than 60,000 EV could be sold in Eastern and Central Europe by 2017.
Up to 58.100 H2-vehicles will exist in Japan and Korea by 2020. Until then, the two countries want to connect a total of 1.452 hydrogen fueling stations.
Diesel cars could sell better than hybrids from 2012 until 2018.
Between 2011 and 2015, the global market for charging stations will grow up to 76.9 percent every year.
Electric mobility saves money and creates jobs. Investments in new technologies might not pay off immediately due to rising production costs, but will become viable due to the decreasing cost of fuel.
The market for hybrid cars, plug-in hybrids and EV will grow significantly in the near future.
Some 65.5 million electric bikes, scooters, and motorcycles could hit the road in the Asia Pacific region until 2018.
Strategic Analysis of the Medium- to Heavy-duty Hybrid and Electric Commercial Vehicle Market in EMEA Region
Overview of electric an hybrid commercial vehicles in Europe, Africa and the Middle East.
Only 25 percent of young people see electric and hybrid drives as a serious alternative.
In the Netherlands, e-bikes are stirring up the bike sector.
Government subsidies make true electric vehicles cheaper than for example hybrids.
Only 35% of hybrid car owners will choose another hybrid when they head to the car dealer again.
Compared to other car-nations, China is still behind in the electric mobility sector.
The market for motors for electric and hybrid cars in Europe to reach 1.6 billion dollars in 2017.
1st quarter 2012
The market for lithium-ion batteries for electric vehicles will be worth 14.6 billion dollars by 2017.
According to Pike Research, a total of 47.6 to 51 million e-bikes will be sold in 2018.
Industry experts identify 11 key challenges for electric mobility.
19 to 31-year-olds clearly prefer electric over combustion vehicles.
Long-term funding is needed to convince fleet managers of the benefits of electric transporters.
When using electric or hybrid vehicles, companies can lower their expenses for fuel by up to 75 percent.
While CO2 production is higher during the manufacturing process of EVs, it evens out the difference over a 10-year period (150,000 km driven).
Market overview and assessment of the manufacturer of in lithium ion batteries for electric vehicles.
Overview of the market development of various components for electric and hybrid vehicles.
Market overview and assessment of the manufacturer of e-bikes and e-scooters.
4th quarter 2011
Report on technology and production trends of electric two-wheelers.
Comprehensive inventory of the charging infrastructure sector.
A consumer survey revealed large gaps in knowledge about electric vehicles.
By 2015, production capacity of lithium-ion batteries will have grown from the current 7 GWh to 26 GWh.
Global market for charging infrastructure of electric vehicles will grow 155 percent by 2020.
The interest in electric cars in the U.S. has dropped slightly.
By 2017, the market for telematics in electric vehicles could be worth 1.4 billion U.S. dollars.
By 2017, mere 100,000 electric cars will be equipped with technology fit for ismart grid integration.
Possible changes in electric motors for small, medium and large electrical vehicles.
The electric drive could become increasingly important for the industrial and commercial vehicle sector.
Extensive consideration of the challenges of future mobility in cities.
3rd quarter 2011
Final report on the joint project by MINI E and Vattenfall V2.0.
Around 7.7 million charging points for electric vehicles could exist worldwide by 2017.
The Chinese are more accepting of electric vehicles than Americans or Europeans.
123 executives from 18 countries see carsharing telematics as important trends.
User surveys; part of Vattenfall’s acceptance trial with electric Minis.
In 2017, hybrids and plug-in hybrids will make up only 3.1 percent of global auto sales.
Until 2017, some 5.2 million electric cars could be sold worldwide.
Daimler and Honda are in the lead in the development of hydrogen cars.
Ten-year forecast for the extended range market.
Only 16 percent of German drivers show serious interest in electric cars.
Up to 5,200 hydrogen fueling stations could be installed by 2020 worldwide.
Some 16 million electric, hybrid, plug-in hybrid and hydrogen cars could be produced by 2021 worldwide.
2nd quarter 2011
Only 695,000 Neighborhood Electric Vehicles (NEVs) will be on the streets worldwide by 2017.
The market for wireless charging techniques will continue to grow significantly in the coming years.
International consumer survey on motivations and preferences when switching to electric cars.
There could be more than 2 million charging stations in Europe by 2017.
Limited knowledge keeps consumers from buying electric cars.
Chinese players have yet to develop sound business models for electric mobility market.
Micro cars with an electric drive could become a hit in the coming years.
A majority of U.S. consumers does not live sustainable, even though they praise sustainability.
1st quarter 2011
Comprehensive analysis of market opportunities and challenges for electric cars.
Resource constraints on the battery energy storage potential for grid and transportation applications
Study finds resource constraints should not be a limiting factor for large-scale EV battery production.
4th quarter 2010
E-mobility will redefine personal transportation trends worldwide.