{"id":203679,"date":"2023-08-02T15:12:17","date_gmt":"2023-08-02T13:12:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.electrive.com\/?p=203679"},"modified":"2024-01-15T09:35:28","modified_gmt":"2024-01-15T08:35:28","slug":"debunking-toyota-la-estrategia-de-bebidas-del-mayor-fabricante-de-coches-del-mundo","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.electrive.com\/es\/2023\/08\/02\/debunking-toyota-the-bev-strategy-of-the-worlds-largest-car-manufacturer\/","title":{"rendered":"Desenmascarando a Toyota: La estrategia BEV del mayor fabricante de autom\u00f3viles del mundo"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>No escasean las noticias sobre bater\u00edas milagrosas, pero cuando el mayor fabricante de autom\u00f3viles del mundo anuncia una, el sector agudiza el o\u00eddo. Toyota promete reducir a la mitad el tama\u00f1o, el peso y el coste de las bater\u00edas de tracci\u00f3n. \u00bfEs realista o la empresa japonesa se est\u00e1 marcando un farol?<!--more--><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">***<\/p>\n<p>Actualmente s\u00f3lo hay un BEV disponible en los concesionarios de Toyota en Alemania: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.electrive.com\/es\/2022\/04\/13\/toyota-lanzara-el-bz4x-en-ee-uu-en-primavera\/\">el bZ4X<\/a>. Desde luego, Toyota no ha puesto mucho amor en el SUV. Por ejemplo, la potencia m\u00e1xima de carga no pod\u00eda alcanzarse de forma fiable. Un problema que se redujo con una actualizaci\u00f3n. Sin embargo, sigue sin disponer de un planificador de rutas que incluya el preacondicionamiento, que es el est\u00e1ndar m\u00ednimo para un BEV contempor\u00e1neo. El bZ4X, h\u00e1bilmente dise\u00f1ado en principio, transmite un mensaje claro: podr\u00edamos si quisi\u00e9ramos. Pero no queremos... todav\u00eda.<\/p>\n<p>Para ser justos: el <a href=\"https:\/\/www.electrive.com\/es\/2023\/02\/06\/a-partir-de-59650-dolares-lexus-publica-los-precios-del-rz-450e\/\">Lexus RZ450e<\/a> sobre la misma base seguir\u00e1 en breve. En teor\u00eda, tambi\u00e9n existe <a href=\"https:\/\/www.electrive.com\/es\/2022\/10\/12\/lexus-dota-al-us-300e-de-un-paquete-de-baterias-mas-grande\/\">el UX300e<\/a>, lo que desgraciadamente sigue siendo una teor\u00eda debido al enchufe CHAdeMO.<\/p>\n<p>Toyota anunci\u00f3 previamente que pronto ofrecer\u00e1 muchos m\u00e1s modelos BEV. El prometedor sed\u00e1n bZ3, por ejemplo, al igual que el <a href=\"https:\/\/www.electrive.com\/es\/2022\/02\/20\/byd-planea-un-modelo-3-como-sedan-de-800-voltios-llamado-seal\/\">t\u00e9cnicamente similar Sello BYD<\/a>, nos llega con un sistema de 800 voltios y c\u00e9lulas LFP en un dise\u00f1o de c\u00e9lula a c\u00e9lula. A la empresa japonesa le gusta tener las cosas bajo control. Por lo tanto, es seguro suponer que el bZ3 no es simplemente un BYD Seal con una carrocer\u00eda diferente, sino que Toyota habr\u00e1 dedicado un gran esfuerzo al desarrollo, el dise\u00f1o y la producci\u00f3n.<\/p>\n<p>La pregunta sigue en el aire: \u00bfD\u00f3nde deja esto a Toyota? \u00bfCu\u00e1l es la estrategia BEV del mayor fabricante de autom\u00f3viles del mundo?<\/p>\n<h3>Interpretaci\u00f3n estirada de la realidad<\/h3>\n<p>Keiji Kaita, presidente del Centro de Investigaci\u00f3n y Desarrollo para la Neutralidad del CO2, declar\u00f3 al <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/87cb8e92-8e82-4755-8fc3-2943f8f63e1d\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\"><em>Financial Times<\/em><\/a> que \"tanto para nuestras bater\u00edas l\u00edquidas como para las de estado s\u00f3lido, pretendemos cambiar dr\u00e1sticamente la situaci\u00f3n\". Ser\u00edan \"demasiado grandes, pesadas y caras\". \"En t\u00e9rminos de potencial, aspiraremos a reducir a la mitad todos estos factores\". A esta predicci\u00f3n se uni\u00f3 la promesa de poder <a href=\"https:\/\/www.electrive.com\/es\/2023\/06\/13\/toyota-quiere-1000-km-de-autonomia-en-sus-bevs-para-2026\/\">alcanzar los 1.000 kil\u00f3metros de autonom\u00eda<\/a> y diez minutos de tiempo de carga en el futuro. \"Nunca subestimes a Toyota\", tuite\u00f3 el analista germano-brit\u00e1nico Matthias Schmidt.<\/p>\n<p>Sin embargo, un an\u00e1lisis m\u00e1s detallado de las declaraciones de Keiji Kaita no deja mucho lugar a dudas. Es un juego popular e in\u00fatil de la industria automovil\u00edstica hacer comparaciones como la mencionada reducci\u00f3n a la mitad del tama\u00f1o, el peso y los costes sin dar un valor original. Necesitamos cifras concretas, y no las estamos obteniendo.<\/p>\n<p>Al menos hay cifras para la autonom\u00eda: Se consideran posibles 1.000 kil\u00f3metros, valores que sin duda se basan en las bater\u00edas de tracci\u00f3n actuales. En Jap\u00f3n, est\u00e1 pr\u00e1cticamente prohibido circular a m\u00e1s de 100 km\/h en casi cualquier lugar. Por ello, el WLTP se adapt\u00f3 en consecuencia. Y no est\u00e1 claro si los 1.000 kil\u00f3metros se refieren al ciclo est\u00e1ndar o a una velocidad constante ideal (Toyota habla de \"autonom\u00eda de crucero\"). Con un consumo imaginario de 120 kilovatios-hora y doce kilovatios-hora de electricidad en condiciones \u00f3ptimas, esta distancia ya es factible, aunque se trate de una interpretaci\u00f3n exagerada de la realidad. No hay nada en ello que bata r\u00e9cords o sea indicativo de un gran avance.<\/p>\n<h3>Puntos de referencia poco claros<\/h3>\n<p>Adem\u00e1s, la definici\u00f3n de diez minutos de tiempo de carga tambi\u00e9n carece de contexto. \u00bfDeber\u00edan ser diez minutos para una carrera de carga desde el diez hasta el 80% de SOC: CATL de China demostr\u00f3 recientemente exactamente eso para la bater\u00eda Qilin, y el habilitador para este corto tiempo no es la qu\u00edmica ex\u00f3tica de las c\u00e9lulas, sino un sistema de refrigeraci\u00f3n y calefacci\u00f3n extremadamente eficiente. El <a href=\"https:\/\/www.electrive.com\/es\/2023\/03\/22\/catl-inicia-la-produccion-de-baterias-qilin\/\">Sistema de bater\u00edas Qilin<\/a> entr\u00f3 recientemente en producci\u00f3n.<\/p>\n<p>Toyota no ha presentado una innovaci\u00f3n comparable sobresaliente. Sin embargo, las expectativas son altas: la empresa es conocida por perfeccionar la producci\u00f3n y por su ampl\u00edsima experiencia en el manejo de las bater\u00edas tamp\u00f3n en m\u00e1s de 20 millones de coches h\u00edbridos. Nadie en la industria tiene un horizonte de aprendizaje tan largo y extenso.<\/p>\n<p>Lo que Toyota trama en realidad se revela en un <a href=\"https:\/\/global.toyota\/en\/newsroom\/corporate\/39330500.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">anuncio general<\/a> publicado en junio. Al leerlo, surge la desilusi\u00f3n, no en el sentido de decepci\u00f3n, sino en el de confrontaci\u00f3n con la realidad. La realidad de Toyota apenas difiere de la de sus competidores.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>No faltan noticias sobre bater\u00edas milagrosas, pero cuando el mayor fabricante de autom\u00f3viles del mundo anuncia una, el sector agudiza el o\u00eddo. Toyota promete<\/p>","protected":false},"author":27,"featured_media":166038,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[9930],"tags":[16771,10230,13682,3701,26328,24414,9961,9308,520],"class_list":["post-203679","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-automobile","tag-background","tag-batteries","tag-battery-cells","tag-bev","tag-bz3","tag-bz4x","tag-germany","tag-solid-state","tag-toyota"],"acf":{"inhalt_teil2":"<h3>Toyota in the middle<\/h3>\n<p>The charging period from ten to 80 per cent SOC takes about 30 minutes for <a href=\"https:\/\/www.electrive.com\/2021\/12\/03\/toyota-presents-roadmap-for-europe-and-the-bz4x\/\">the Toyota bZ4X<\/a>. From 2026, this value will drop to 20 minutes for the same chemistry (prismatic NMC cells). This seems far more feasible than the simultaneously claimed doubling of range, which could plausibly only be achieved via a much larger traction battery overall via better packaging in the same installation space.<\/p>\n<p>In 2027, low-cost LFP cells will follow, which will need 30 minutes for the comparison charge. In 2028, the range, which has doubled compared to the current bZ4X, will be increased by another ten per cent. The reason for this is a cell chemistry with an even higher nickel content, for example, NMC955 (for a cathode mixture of 90 per cent nickel and five per cent each manganese and cobalt).<\/p>\n<p>All these values &#8211; if they are expressed in concrete figures and not comparisons &#8211; are merely average. Not particularly good: Hyundai&#8217;s e-GMP with its 800 volts system comes to 18 minutes. Not particularly bad: some Chinese electric cars need 45 minutes or more. Toyota is simply the conservative middle.<\/p>\n<h3>Solid state or only semi-solid state?<\/h3>\n<p>Toyota is particularly cautious in its formulations about solid-state batteries. They are aiming for series production in 2027\/28. Costs are also &#8220;under review&#8221;, the carmaker says, not-so-subtly implying that the costs are still too high. And the increase in range compared to a cell chemistry with a high nickel content is apparently only ten per cent. The researchers claim progress in the charging time of ten minutes &#8220;or less&#8221;.<\/p>\n<p>Recently, Toyota has said that it wants to install potential solid-state batteries not only as buffer storage in hybrid cars, but also in BEVs. It remains to be seen whether this will be a true solid-state battery with a metallic lithium anode or semi-solid-states with a gel or soft powder as the electrolyte. Only the pure lithium anode with an actual solid electrolyte allows the potential of this type to be released, as experts point out in background discussions. Industry circles tend to assume that Toyota will use semi-solid-state.<\/p>\n<p>The world market leader allows this hesitation for different reasons. First of all, it is crucial to understand that Toyota strongly identifies with and plans around the Japanese market. Here, the share of BEVs in terms of new cars is only around two per cent due to a lack of subsidies. In Europe, on the other hand, Toyota is the only manufacturer that succeeds in meeting the fleet limits almost without BEVs by reducing CO2 emissions from cars with internal combustion engines. This will change in the near future, but for the time being, mass sales of hybrid cars are still enough to easily comply with all relevant CO2 regulations.<\/p>\n<h3>Gigacasting like Tesla<\/h3>\n<p>On the other hand, Toyota reveals that Tesla has become a role model for the Japanese company: the next BEV generation (from 2026) will be partly produced by &#8220;gigacasting&#8221;. In this process, structural components at the front and rear, which used to be assembled from many individual parts, come out of the machine in a single aluminium casting. This speeds up production and lowers costs.<\/p>\n<p>In <a href=\"https:\/\/www.electrive.com\/2021\/12\/14\/toyota-raises-ev-targets-presents15-concept-cars\/\">December 2021<\/a>, Akio Toyoda presented a whole armada of electric cars. However, little has happened since. But no one should be under the illusion that this cannot change. Toyota will continually build more electric cars. The total number of units will likely be in the bottom third of the car industry in the medium term. Hopefully, these electric cars will live up to the brand&#8217;s reputation. They don&#8217;t have to be an S3XY, but solid, reliable and affordable.<\/p>\n<p><em>Reporting by Christoph M. Schwarzer<\/em><\/p>\n"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.electrive.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/203679","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.electrive.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.electrive.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.electrive.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/27"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.electrive.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=203679"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.electrive.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/203679\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":223441,"href":"https:\/\/www.electrive.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/203679\/revisions\/223441"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.electrive.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/166038"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.electrive.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=203679"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.electrive.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=203679"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.electrive.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=203679"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}