Study finds BEVs more important for European CO2 targets than PHEVs & range extenders

The study was published by ChargeFrance, but was produced in collaboration with the consulting firm Boston Consulting Group (BCG). The ChargeFrance association brings together various players in the charging infrastructure industry, from charging point operators such as Allego, Atlante, Electra, Engie Vianeo, Fastned and Ionity to hardware manufacturers such as Alpitronic and energy suppliers such as EDF. In Germany, the study was recently presented by Alpitronic and Ionity at a panel discussion at the Intercharge Network Conference (ICNC) in Berlin.

Much of the data for the study comes from customer surveys and market analyses conducted by BCG, covering topics such as purchase intentions, total cost of ownership (TCO) and CO2 emissions of different drive types over their entire life cycle. “Their expertise in market analysis was crucial to the preparation of this study,” writes ChargeFrance, but the conclusions come from the French charging infrastructure association. Other studies were also cited.

The hurdles to switching

First, it addresses the obstacles that electric car drivers or prospective buyers have cited in surveys, which are likely to hinder the further spread of electric cars in the mass market: 13 per cent of survey participants in the EU already drive an electric car, and 46 per cent plan to switch when they next change their vehicle. Four main obstacles came to light, which, according to ChargeFrance, “will quickly disappear in most use cases.”

• Charging time: In a 2024 survey, the “next wave of BEV customers” expected charging times to be 30 minutes. Many current electric cars already achieve this, with the trend for higher-end vehicles even moving towards 20 minutes or less, and even cheaper volume models often charging to 80 per cent in under half an hour.
• Range: The average desired range stated in the survey was 460 kilometres. ChargeFrance gives an average range of 544 kilometres for electric cars that came onto the market in 2024. The latter figure refers to WLTP ranges, but customer expectations leave open whether this refers to the WLTP value or a realistically achievable range. With a WLTP range of 544 kilometres, a realistic range of 350 to 400 kilometres is more likely, depending on conditions and driving style. However, the real range is also likely to approach 460 kilometres. The upcoming IAA premieres in particular will further increase the range.
• Residual value: According to the study, in 2025, the residual value of a combustion engine car after five years of use will be 45 per cent of its original price, while for electric cars it will be only 37 per cent. “This resale value discount is likely to decrease from the current 8 percentage points to 3 percentage points by 2035,” according to ChargeFrance. The expected resale value of electric cars will then be 42 per cent of the new price, while the value for combustion engines will remain the same.
• Costs: Battery electric cars are already cheaper to run in most cases – the Boston Consulting Group’s TCO study found that electric cars are cheaper for 75 per cent of European new car customers. This would still be the case even if the price of fuel fell to one euro per litre, according to the study. In the B segment, electric cars are already cheaper to purchase in some cases (as the costs of more complex exhaust after-treatment for combustion engines are more significant for small cars).

Electric cars are already performing well in terms of the four main criteria of (potential) customers, and further developments are likely to improve the position of battery electric cars even further compared to the results of surveys and studies. This also applies to another factor: environmental impact.

BEVs perform better in terms of CO2 emissions

Much has already been written about the life cycle analyses and CO2 footprints of electric cars, most recently in a detailed study by the ICCT. According to the figures cited by ChargeFrance in its study, battery electric cars produce only half as many CO2 emissions over their lifetime as a comparable PHEV for a private user (17 tonnes of CO2 equivalent compared to 28 tonnes of CO2 equivalent) and 2.7 times less than a comparable PHEV when used as a company car (46 tonnes of CO2 equivalent). When distinguishing between private customers and company cars for PHEVs, ChargeFrance refers to an ICCT study from 2022, which determined the actual use of plug-in hybrids. According to the study, private customers drive their part-time electric vehicles purely on electric power for 45 to 50 per cent of their journeys, as they charge them regularly. Company cars, on the other hand, only run on electric power for 10 to 15 per cent of their journeys and mainly use the combustion engine. Both figures are well below the 80 per cent electric share once assumed by the EU.

“BEVs can achieve net-zero emissions targets even for large family cars, and their popularity is growing as Europe’s energy mix becomes decarbonised. Regardless of the energy mix, BEVs consistently emit less CO2 than PHEVs, usually before reaching a mileage of 20,000 km,” the study states. And: “A BEV costs the average driver 640 to 1,600 euros less per year than a PHEV.”

Even range extender vehicles (EREVs), which are currently experiencing strong growth in China, cannot beat pure electric cars in terms of environmental impact and often also in terms of cost. These are mostly larger vehicles that have a smaller battery on board than a BEV, but also have an internal combustion engine as a generator, which, however, never drives the wheels directly. According to data from Chinese manufacturer Li Auto, which has long specialised in such EREVs, the vehicles run on battery power 35 per cent of the time. ChargeFrance has modelled two scenarios based on this: one with 15 per cent electric power and one with 65 per cent electric power as a more optimistic case. In both scenarios, however, the range extender emits more CO2 than a comparable electric car despite its smaller battery. “These technologies may play a role in reducing emissions in the short term in certain rural areas or regions with high mileage, but they will not be able to achieve net-zero targets, especially as the European energy mix continues to decarbonise by 2030, further increasing the emissions advantage of BEVs,” the study says.

Range extenders will not save the combustion engine industry

And even with the often-cited argument of greater expertise in combustion engines in Europe, the range extender can only score points to a limited extent: although it is a combustion engine, it is not a high-tech unit produced in Europe, but rather a simple, inexpensive petrol engine. According to the study, range extender vehicles are unlikely to contribute much to preserving jobs in the European automotive industry. On the other hand, a growing electric car industry could create up to 100,000 jobs in European battery manufacturing and around 70,000 jobs in the entire charging infrastructure sector. The latter figure comes from the European lobby organisation ChargeUp Europe.

In conclusion, ChargeFrance and its partners appeal to EU decisionmakers to remain steadfast in their CO2 targets for 2035. Most recently, Mercedes CEO Ola Källenius, once a strong advocate of a rapid transition to electric cars, in his role as president of the European industry association ACEA, called on the EU Commission to abandon the strict CO2 target for 2035 and make it more flexible, for example, with plug-in hybrids and range extenders. ChargeFrance refers to the results of its study: “The questioning of whether BEVs are a sustainable long-term solution is causing uncertainty and could undermine consumer confidence.” The association is therefore calling for a clear commitment to electric cars.

Purchase incentives and lower charging costs

According to ChargeFrance, this should be accompanied by direct purchase incentives that favour battery electric cars over plug-in hybrids, range extenders and combustion engines for private and fleet customers. “Reducing the cost of public charging, for example, for households with limited access to private charging infrastructure at home or at work, could be an important factor in addition to granting reduced public charging costs in the first few years after installation,” the study states. “Maintaining a robust level of e-credit incentives for charging electric vehicles is also crucial. Finally, great importance must be attached to making the total cost of ownership more transparent for end customers.”

A representative of the VDA was also on stage when the study was presented at the ICNC. The German Association of the Automotive Industry was not involved in the study and insisted on technological openness, arguing that the right mix of drive systems would be crucial in the future. The study was based largely on assumptions, according to the criticism.

However, the figures from this and other studies clearly show which type of drive is best for the environment, and thus probably also for a sustainable industry.

Source: Info via email, chargefrance.org

This article was first published by Sebastian Schaal for electrive’s German edition.